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Worried about AI taking jobs? Skilled trades remain secure.

December 3, 2025
General
14 min read

There’s a lot of anxiety out there right now, especially among young people and their parents. High schoolers and college students are looking at the job market and feeling pretty bleak about their futures. Parents are worried their kids won’t find stable work after graduation. And headlines about “robots taking our jobs” don’t help.

Artificial intelligence is changing the job landscape faster than most people expected. At the same time, there’s another story unfolding that doesn’t get as much attention: the US desperately needs skilled trade workers, and those jobs are remarkably resistant to being taken over by AI or robots.

So let’s zoom out and look at what’s actually happening in the job market—then look at where hands-on trades like plumbing, HVAC, appliance repair, and electrical work fit in.

Spoiler: the picture is a lot less hopeless than it feels, especially if you’re open to skilled trades.

Is AI really taking over all the jobs?

The MIT Study

In November 2025, MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory released a study that got a lot of attention. They found that AI can currently handle tasks that represent 11.7% of the U.S. workforce—that’s about $1.2 trillion in annual wages and roughly 17.7 million jobs… jobs that are mostly in finance, healthcare, and professional services.

Now, before anyone panics: this doesn’t mean those jobs will all disappear tomorrow. What it means is that AI is technically capable of doing that work at a cost that’s competitive with human labor. The researchers call this the “Iceberg Index” because there’s a huge gap between what we see AI doing now (mostly in tech jobs, about 2.2% of the workforce) and what it’s actually capable of doing (that 11.7% figure).

It’s not just the coastal and tech hubs…

Here’s what surprised researchers: AI’s impact isn’t limited to Silicon Valley or Seattle. The exposure spreads across all 50 states. Ohio shows 11.8% workforce exposure, Tennessee 11.6%, and states like South Dakota, Utah, and Delaware are significantly affected too. This is hitting the Rust Belt hard because of all the cognitive work that supports manufacturing—financial analysis, administrative coordination, professional services.

Not surprisingly, workers feel that shift: In a 2025 Pew Research Center survey, about half of US workers surveyed (52%) said they feel worried about how AI will be used in the workplace in the future, and one-third believe it will mean fewer job opportunities for them over the long run.

So the anxiety you’re hearing from teens, college students, and their parents is not irrational. There is real disruption on the way, especially for “knowledge work” and entry-level office jobs.

What’s AI doing to white-collar, entry-level jobs?

The data on entry-level positions is particularly concerning for recent graduates:

Research from Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab found that entry-level hiring in AI-exposed jobs dropped 13% since large language models became widespread. Software development, customer service, and clerical work are most vulnerable.

What companies are saying about AI…

This isn’t speculation. Here’s what major employers are doing:

  • Klarna: CEO said the company reduced headcount by about 40%, partially due to AI
  • Salesforce: Eliminated 4,000 customer support roles in September 2025, saying AI can handle 50% of company work
  • JPMorgan: Managers instructed to avoid hiring as AI deploys across business
  • Ford CEO: Predicted AI will “replace literally half of all white-collar workers”

How Workers Feel About This

The anxiety isn’t imagined:

What Experts Are Predicting

Young People Are Already Shifting to Trades

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Something interesting is happening: young people are choosing trades over traditional college at increasing rates.

In the United Kingdom:

In the United States:

Why the Shift?

One UK plumbing student, 18-year-old Maryna Yaroshenko, put it simply: “No AI can do plumbing, no AI can do real engineering, no AI can be an electrician.”

Kayden Evans, an 18-year-old high school senior in Arizona, summed up his thinking: “I wouldn’t say I am worried about AI because where I want to grow is as a field technician… AI can’t go out in the field and take apart an engine.”

A survey of 7th- to 12th-graders found that 45% said a two- or four-year college is their “most likely” next step, down from 78% in 2018. Meanwhile, 37% are considering trade schools, apprenticeships, and technical programs, up from just 11% in 2018.

The reasons are pretty straightforward:

  1. Lower education costs
  2. Avoiding massive student debt
  3. Faster entry to the workforce
  4. Competitive salaries without needing a degree
  5. Job security that’s more predictable

The US Has a Massive Shortage of Skilled Workers

Here’s the thing: while AI might be threatening white-collar jobs, there aren’t enough people to fill the skilled trades positions that already exist.

How Bad Is It?

Overall Construction:

Plumbers:

Electricians:

  • Employment projected to grow twice as fast as the average for all occupations through 2032
  • Nearly 30% of union electricians are near retirement
  • Approximately 66,600 new openings expected by 2033

Overall Skilled Trades:

Regional Needs: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects over 500,000 open skilled-trade positions across the northeastern U.S. by 2028, without enough qualified workers entering the labor force to meet demand.

Why the Shortage?

The median age of skilled trade workers keeps rising as baby boomers retire. This is particularly concerning because these are the most experienced workers. Training their replacements takes 4-5 years for full certification. When you lose experienced people and can’t replace them fast enough, you get the crisis we’re facing now.

Trade School vs. College: Let’s Talk Money

What It Actually Costs

Trade School:

Traditional Four-Year College:

Student Debt Reality

Time Is Money

Trade School: Most programs: 6 months to 2 years, then you’re working and earning

Traditional College: Minimum 4 years for a bachelor’s degree, often longer. Many fields require additional internships or graduate degrees (adding 2-6+ years).

That means trade school graduates enter the workforce sooner with way less debt, which enables faster wealth building and less financial stress.

What Do Skilled Trade Workers Actually Earn?

Let’s look at real numbers from 2025:

Electricians

Plumbers

HVAC Technicians

  • Entry-level: $54,100 median annual salary
  • Median across experience levels: $50,000-$90,000
  • Specialized commercial HVAC: Even higher earning potential

Business Ownership

This is where it gets really interesting. Skilled trades offer way more opportunities for business ownership than many white-collar careers. Self-employed tradespeople frequently earn $150,000-$300,000 annually, particularly in electrical contracting, plumbing services, HVAC installation and service, and specialized welding.

One young electrician, Jordan Palmer, who skipped college said his business generated $90,000 in revenue in its first year and is on track to top $150,000 in 2025—a more than 30% increase. No college degree needed.

Why Can’t Robots Just Do These Jobs?

This is the key question. If AI is coming for white-collar jobs, why not blue-collar jobs too?

Physical Environments Are Complicated

Skilled trades work happens in unpredictable, unstructured environments that are really hard for automation, especially when it’s not new construction:

The Challenges:

  • Every job site presents unique challenges
  • Tight spaces with varied materials
  • Unexpected complications requiring real-time problem-solving
  • Weather and environmental factors
  • Human dexterity requirements: fine motor skills, adaptation to irregular surfaces, tool manipulation in constrained environments, tactile feedback for quality control

What About Construction Robots?

Yes, construction robotics exists. The market is growing—projected to reach $774 million by 2032. But here’s what current robots can actually do:

Task-Specific Robots (Currently Deployed):

  • Robotic bricklayers (like Hadrian X: up to 1,000 bricks/hour)
  • Autonomous surveying systems and drones
  • Plastering robots for repetitive wall covering
  • 3D printing for prefabricated components

Important Reality Check: These robots work primarily in controlled environments with repetitive tasks, particularly in new construction. They’re designed to help human workers, not replace them.

McKinsey estimates the general-purpose robotics market could reach $370 billion by 2040, but construction deployment faces a long timeline. Humanoid robots currently work well in structured factory environments but struggle with construction’s messy, complex, and unpredictable nature.

Service and Repair Work: The Game Changer

Service and repair work in existing structures is fundamentally different from new construction.

Why This Matters:

  1. Diagnostic Requirements: Finding problems requires experience-based judgment
  2. Access Challenges: Existing buildings have constrained spaces, hidden infrastructure, and simply uneven terrain
  3. Custom Solutions: Each repair is unique—no two jobs are identical
  4. Customer Interaction: You need to communicate with clients, explain issues, and build trust
  5. Variable Conditions: Including unknown infrastructure, surprise complications, and ever-evolving building codes

As City of Westminster College CEO Stephen Davis put it: “Sometimes plumbers have to put their hands down the toilet to unblock it… and I’m yet to meet a robot that does that for us.”

Researchers emphasize that service, maintenance, and repair in existing structures will require human workers “for the foreseeable future” because of the complexity and adaptation requirements.

What Industry Experts Say

Bedrock Robotics CEO Boris Sofman: “Construction is the most injury-prone industry across all job types. So there’s massive demand, insufficient labor supply, skyrocketing costs, and projects that simply don’t get done.”

Texas A&M Construction Management Research: “Robots will not replace human workers in construction. Instead, they will automate tedious, repetitive, or risky tasks, giving human workers the ability to take on advanced construction positions.”

The reality? In 2024, 65% of construction companies were implementing robotics. In 2025, that number dropped to 46%. This reflects a shift from experimental pilots to strategic, repeat deployments—steady progress, not explosive takeover.

The Bottom Line

Let’s summarize what the data actually shows:

What’s Happening with AI:

  • AI can currently handle tasks representing 11.7% of the U.S. workforce ($1.2 trillion in wages)
  • White-collar, entry-level jobs are being affected most right now
  • The impact is spreading beyond coastal tech hubs to all regions
  • Major companies are reducing headcount and citing AI as a reason

What’s Happening with Trades:

  • The U.S. needs hundreds of thousands of skilled workers immediately
  • By 2027-2033, the shortage could reach 2 million unfilled positions
  • Young people are already shifting toward trades
  • Trade school costs a fraction of college tuition
  • Skilled trade workers earn competitive salaries, often $50,000-$60,000 starting, rising to $100,000+ with experience or business ownership

Why Trades Resist Automation:

  • Physical repair and service work in existing structures requires human judgment and dexterity
  • Every job is different—there’s no “standard procedure” a robot can follow
  • Diagnostic work requires experience-based problem-solving
  • Customer interaction and trust-building matter
  • These jobs can’t be offshored

The Economic Reality:

  • Trade programs: $5,000-$15,000 total
  • College programs: $40,000-$147,000+ total
  • Trade school: 6 months to 2 years
  • College: 4+ years
  • Trade school debt: About $8,000 average
  • College debt: About $32,000 average

The data suggests that while robotics will increasingly handle repetitive tasks in new construction, service and repair work in existing structures will require human expertise for a very long time. Combined with lower training costs, faster entry to employment, and high demand, skilled trades represent a practical career path during a period of economic and technological transition.

We’re not saying college is bad or that everyone should become a plumber. We are saying that the job market isn’t doom-and-gloom about an AI takeover if you want to shift to good-ol’ hands-on labor. And if you’re a young adult (or parent of one) who is interested in learning skills in the real-world, we take on apprentices – reach out to learn more.

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